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Investment Sector: Equities
Submitted by Rajiv contact me , An Investor... at Bank Of Baroda....migrating to USA
7 months ago
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Friends,
Well, seems 500-600 ponits up and down is now the order of the day.
Unless subprime crisis cools down,unless selling of US funds cools down, seems we will see lots of volatility uptill then.
It is natural that when selling will come volatiltity will be at the highest.
Well,decoupling is bound to take place sooner or later.India growth can't be ignored by the world.Moreover the US economy will also do well from second half as I have written here in past.
Many fund managers are sceptic about the decoupling theory, but time will come when we will see decoupling taking place as well.
My targets of 28k-30k are still intact which I gave here in Jan08...which could be achieved within a year .
<u>If one must have seen, the retail participation in IPO of Ril Power was big enough to see that FII's investment though was of rs 17,000 cr, was way behind the total of retail participation in Rpower issue which was as big as 1 lac cr and issue was subscribed for total value of Rs 7 lac cr.
Here one is able to see the clear demarcation happening now between local money coming into play.It is obvious that those who will not get allotment will opt for buying RPower on listing day ,but the thing to be observed here is,the money which were in savings bank a/c come out for application for RPower and now will come to secondary market and thus will increase the stake of Public participation in Indian Market context and hence I feel that the day is not far off when FII's will not be able to take the call on our market.</u>
Someone asked me , that some Rs 145 cr cheques went in Stop Payment for RPOwer IPO due to the recent meltdown, but when an issue is oversubscribed by 86 times at over Rs 7,00,000 cr , then what makes the difference for Rs.145 cr...It is just peanuts for the entire issue.
As I have written at the Heading..Stay Invested.........India story is not to end so abruptly......we have still a long way to go.India is where China was 15 yrs back.Try to understand what I am upto.
I have written couple of weeks back that someone sold heavily the futures of Nifty in our market and as Prashant showed, it was the biggest speculator on the earth,Mr George Soros who seems have done the damage, Viz:according to what we read in dnamoney paper.Don't know whether he has unwind his short position or not....
But the same George Soros has taken stake in Ril Entertainment.
Here I am putting that article which I read in Business Standard paper:

Soros invests $100mn in Rel Entertainment
BS Reporter / New Delhi February 07, 2008
George Soros has picked up 3% stake in Reliance Entertainment for $100 million (Rs 400 crore). The stake sale puts the value of the company at around $3 billion (approximately Rs 12,000 crore).Reliance Entertainment is the flagship and umbrella entertainment company of Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group and 100% owned by Anil Ambani.Reliance Entertainment has three main lines of business - Internet and new media, film entertainment and TV broadcasting.A Reliance Entertainment spokesperson confirmed the development, and added: "We are delighted to have a sophisticated investor like George Soros as a stakeholder in the company that operates in a high growth and high potential entertainment sector offering a complete bouquet of innovative products and services to its audience."Reliance Entertainment, under its Internet and new media initiatives, has already launched a number of ventures: Zapak, a gaming portal; Big Adda, a social network and social media venture; Big Flicks, an online and offline movie rentals business; and Jump Mobile, a mobile entertainment venture.The company has signed up frontline directors like Farhan Akhtar - for an estimated Rs 300 crore for six films - Madhur Bhandarkar and Vivek Agnihotri for production. It has recently acquired controlling stake in India's largest production studio - ND Studio. It has also initiated allied ventures such as Big Music (music CDs), Home Video(video) and animation & special effects.

Now if George Soros is so bearish on India then why the hell he is selling in Indian Market?He has invested in an unlisted company of Anil Ambani gr where many investors(MF's managers/HNI's/Strategic invt/IIT's/IIM's/etc etc) are sceptic on whether Anil Ambani has the credentials to run EVEN a small co or not?Though I am a great follower of Anil Ambani and feel that he is definately better then Mukesh Ambani.
Well, I have again tried my best to pacify the recent shocks which market is still giving to us....
I hope , this is not the time to panic... but to buy stocks which have fallen sharply....

Though I have not to write this I still would write here again:
These are all my views and I may wrong horribly....and anything written for anyone personally are my own view and read nad understand while reading somewhere else....
I again cautioned all my viewers that take your own judegment as act judisiously taking advice from more concrete person.I am not the best judge of the situation individually...and hence one should act accordingly to his behest....



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#1 | Vt_black_best_image_thumb Vtcastle @ 7 months ago
User Rank : 532 Portfoilo Balance: $12,365.00
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Raj,I think many American's are afraid to invest in India at the moment for 2 reasons:1) On a P/E basis compared to the US markets, many of India's companies are trading at a premium.  I've been looking into India's banking sector (which I like) and they are a bit more expensive than their industry peers on a global basis.2) Since the word recession is heard every 3rd newscast or printed headline, the first thing American investors will look for are the P/E ratio's.  Since you are now stateside (welcome!), I will share with you a behavioral tendency of Americans:"American's can't be counted upon in what they do - but you can be sure they will do it all at the same time." We are, by in large, a relatively panicky society and have a tendency to watch entirely too many news reports.  Once you master this, you will be able to use this to your advantage!
#2 | Who Rajiv @ 7 months ago
An Investor... at Bank Of Baroda....migrating to USA
User Rank : 133 Portfoilo Balance: $83,050.00
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Hi Matt, Well , as I have written in past here that US economy is going to bounce back in second half and am seeing Dow at 16k by Dec 08. The whole world is sitting straight and seeing how US is holding out.As we have discussed here, the subprime mortgage loss is around $300-400 bn which is not a big issue as US economy is in trillions and not billions. Well,I have just a talk with one of my friend in India and he said that he is also bullish on US economy.He deals with US co on Shipping business and he says that he can see the dollar strenght now. Well, I just read today in WSJ that dollar is not buckling down with the bad news! and that is where I am seeing the silver lining.....They have written that in past also whenever the economy went in for a bad shape ,Dollar has strenghtened and hence no wonder dollar will do well and that will act as a cushion to the economy. Matt, seems it has become a habit for the market Gurus to give negative views on US economy and whole world is waiting for the US economy to go in for recession.I am really really surprised to see how one is so happy to see US economy going in for recession?That is too much a call for me to understand...Is it so that the whole world is happy to see US buckling down and also leads the wrold to recession?and if it happens(which is not going to happen)then what they wants to do with the limping world economy?Wants to buy whole world shares at throwaway price?Lol! Anyway,have a look at my E*Trade Fin corp call....it is already up today by some 11 cent...read the post... Do meet me if you come to Chicago....You have my id ... Warm Regards, Rajeev
#3 | Vt_black_best_image_thumb Vtcastle @ 7 months ago
User Rank : 532 Portfoilo Balance: $12,365.00
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Dow 16,000? I like ya Raj, but did a suitcase fall on your head on the flight over? haha! That's a 30% rise from current levels my friend. I would love for you to be correct in your theory, but I don't see it happening. I'm bullish on certain sectors of the US economy, but we're going sideways until the US debt problems are fixed. Right now, the bond issuer mess needs to be cleaned up b/c if those fail --> we're in trouble! America is a country based on structured debt, and if the foundation crumbles, then so does the building over head. I like the point on Etrade. I actually had a short on Etrade from Oct 07 to Dec 07. Made a nice double on that one! But I think its on its way back up, but slowly. What do you think of Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited (VSL)? That might be my favorite play from India's consistent talent of young professionals. India will no doubt continue to be a major outsourcing center, so buying up the company that controls the majority of the broadband capacity should really benefit from that. Your thoughts? Check out my article on telecom. http://fingad.com/review/show/3_rarely_mentioned_plays_for_g lobal_telecom_g_rowth_
#4 | Who Rajiv @ 6 months ago
An Investor... at Bank Of Baroda....migrating to USA
User Rank : 133 Portfoilo Balance: $83,050.00
Comment Rating: 0
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Hi Matt, This is the best time to invest in India when the chips are down there. I have been in USA now since 3 weeks and I am trying to study the US market and it's valuations....reading WSJ,surfing some sites like CBNC etc.. What I have learnt is not so encouraging here as well.It may be that US investors are not wiiling to invest in India, but then the valuations here are also not so cheap...that is what I am seeing...a company just is making small profit is traded at high P/E ratio.... though the overall P?E ratio maybe low....and looks good compared to Indain Market....I can easily able to gauge the difference between US and India....Ofcourse with a recent meltdown in Indai market things are looking extremly good there and while reading the business papers of India through Internet , some big FII houses like Morgan, Citi,Merill Lynch have already started buying in India and that too in Midcap/Small Cap space... I am bullish on India and US as well and I still stick to my target of Dow of 16k by the end of this year, Dec 2008.... Will discuss more next time.......... Regards, Rajeev




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