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rajiv's review
Investment Sector: Emerging Markets Submitted by Rajiv 
, An Investor...
at Bank Of Baroda....migrating to USA
4 months ago Add Tag |
Some Facts...........
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IIP hints slowdown fears exaggerated
The momentum of industrial production is maintained at a handsome level. In February 2008, the industrial index registered a growth of 8.6%; though less than the rate of 11% during the same month of 2007, the performance is laudable.
At close to 9%, even the average rate of growth in the industrial sector during the first eleven months paints a more or less reassuring picture.
Though during the preceding year, the incremental growth was higher for the same month and for the same period, the trend indicates that for 2007-08, fears of a serious slowdown are misplaced and the fiscal may end on a satisfactory note.
As many as 16 of the 17 industry groups at the two-digit classification, 10 have registered a respectable rate of increase and for another six, the growth was in the positive territory.
Further, demand for investment goods is keen, reflecting that industries are busy creating or augmenting assets.
In February 2008, the upswing in capital goods output was to the tune of 10.4% and for the April-February period, the rise was of the order of 17.5%.
According to official data, there was a marginal improvement in the growth rate of mining segment at 5.1% during the first eleven months of last year.
In electricity, the let-up was slight at 6.6%. But the heavyweight- manufacturing - continues to fare well.
Though the tempo of manufacturing has slackened from 12.2% to 9.1%, in a fundamental sense, the showing is good in the case of this sector.
The use-based classification indicates that both the basic goods industry and the capital goods segment are sustaining a healthy level of output.
Some fine tuning of output in the light of demand conditions is natural and one should not read too much in the deceleration noted in both these industries in 2007-08.In respect of intermediate goods, the growth rate of 9.2% is commendable, although it is lower than the preceding year’s 11.7%.
The serious setback in February 2008 can be viewed as a blip rather than a sign of any serious bottleneck in this segment.
Even in the case of consumer goods, the more important non-durable segment is in a fine fettle; at 11.0%, the growth rate in February 2008 was higher than what it was a year ago and for the period, April-February period, the performance is good.
The consumer durables is in the doldrums, though the output in the latest month is a shade better than 12 months ago.
The industrial production scenario in the last fiscal year, based on the available trends, indicates that, while a distinct deceleration is on the cards for the broad industrial groups in relation to 2006-07, the rate of increase would be high enough to be described as very satisfactory in that it would be largely in conformity with the Plan targets.
My Comments:
What if IIP do not slow down?Going by one quanter do not makes a Slow down.....and hence let us see 2-3 qrs down the line....but I am afraid what will happen,to SS and party, if IIP figures keeps coming good in next 2-3 months....
Moreover , I am seeing that Dow is again up , which again vindiactes my view that it was only a reaction of bad GE figures....as the figures shows that March Retail Sales are higher and that is a good sign....and hence we may see Dow closing green today....
2)FIIs more bullish than promoters on Indian stocks
MUMBAI: It is the 'heavy selling' by FIIs being blamed squarely for meltdown at Dalal Street, but if their market activity patterns are to be believed, overseas investors seem to be over three times more confident than India Inc itself regarding the mark et's future growth. According to an analysis of the changes in the listed companies' shareholding patterns since the beginning of this year, the number of companies where foreign institutional investors have raised their holding is bigger than that of th ose where FII holdings have gone down.
In contrast, the promoters have cut down their holdings in more number of companies as compared to those where they have raised their stakes during the same period. The data shows that among all the firms having disclosed their latest shareholding patter n as on end of January-March quarter, at least one in three firms have seen an increase in its FII holding.
In comparison, only about one in nine has seen its promoters raising their shareholding in the company. However, indicating a relatively less bullish stand on large-cap companies, the overseas investors have mostly cut down their exposure to the firms wi th high market values while accumulating more shares in those with lesser valuations.
So far, close to 900 companies have released their shareholding patterns as on March 31, 2008. Out of these, the FIIs have raised their shareholding in as many as 320 companies, ( this is important)while promoter holding has increased in just 117 companies from the levels as on the end of 2007.
Those companies where FIIs have cut down their holdings, include HDFC, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, IVRCL Infra, Spice Communications, United Phosphorus, Dr Reddy's Labs, DCB, Axis Bank, Tata Motors, HCL Infosystems and J&K Bank. - PTI
MUMBAI: It is the 'heavy selling' by FIIs being blamed squarely for meltdown at Dalal Street, but if their market activity patterns are to be believed, overseas investors seem to be over three times more confident than India Inc itself regarding the mark et's future growth. According to an analysis of the changes in the listed companies' shareholding patterns since the beginning of this year, the number of companies where foreign institutional investors have raised their holding is bigger than that of th ose where FII holdings have gone down.
In contrast, the promoters have cut down their holdings in more number of companies as compared to those where they have raised their stakes during the same period. The data shows that among all the firms having disclosed their latest shareholding patter n as on end of January-March quarter, at least one in three firms have seen an increase in its FII holding.
In comparison, only about one in nine has seen its promoters raising their shareholding in the company. However, indicating a relatively less bullish stand on large-cap companies, the overseas investors have mostly cut down their exposure to the firms wi th high market values while accumulating more shares in those with lesser valuations.
So far, close to 900 companies have released their shareholding patterns as on March 31, 2008. Out of these, the FIIs have raised their shareholding in as many as 320 companies, ( this is important)while promoter holding has increased in just 117 companies from the levels as on the end of 2007.
Those companies where FIIs have cut down their holdings, include HDFC, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, IVRCL Infra, Spice Communications, United Phosphorus, Dr Reddy's Labs, DCB, Axis Bank, Tata Motors, HCL Infosystems and J&K Bank. - PTI
My Comments:
I again say that there is nothing to do with what Dows do....we have already decoupled it...as we can see that when Dow moves down our market moves down but when Dow moves up our market do not move up....and that is decoupling.....means the fault is in our market.Our market is not looking at International clues.....if it was there ,then with Asian market moving up our market must have imbibed that movement but that is not happening.....
Now the above article also says that FIIs have raised their shareholding in as many as 320 companies in Mar quater....and that is the confidence FII's are showing if one goes by the FII's increasing stake in the Indian companies....
I hope those who follows FII's figures would get some clue from this....
All said and done I think this will throw some light how Indian Market will behave and what one should do......according to me....It is Cherry picking time..... Buy....everything avaibale on SALE..........One for One Free.....
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An Investor... at Bank Of Baroda....migrating to USA
An Investor... at Bank Of Baroda....migrating to USA